National Agency Stands Behind “Nuanced” Forecast Methodology

PAGASA Forecasts “High Chance of Weather” This Week

National Agency Stands Behind “Nuanced” Forecast Methodology

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration issued its weekly bulletin Monday, forecasting “possible precipitation in some areas, with sunny intervals in others, and generally variable conditions throughout” — a statement rival meteorologists described as “technically unfalsifiable.” PAGASA administrator Dr. Vicente Tolentino-Aguas defended the forecast at a press briefing, explaining that the Philippines’ 7,641 islands across multiple climate zones makes precision forecasting “more of a vibe than a science, at this stage.” The bulletin for Metro Manila warned of “isolated thunderstorms, possibly in your area, possibly not, depending on where you are and when.” Signal No. 1 conditions covered portions of Luzon “or the area near Luzon, depending on where the low-pressure area decides to go, which it hasn’t decided yet.” PAGASA defended its 65% accuracy rate on 24-hour forecasts. A reporter noted a coin flip achieves 50%. Dr. Tolentino-Aguas said that was “a different methodology.” Users in Leyte noted they received no warning before Tuesday’s flooding, while Makati received four alerts about storms that never arrived. PAGASA explained this as “spatial variability in alert distribution” and announced a new app called WeatherNa, launching this December, whose preview icon is a cloud with a question mark.

SOURCE: Bohiney News.