Bureau’s Chief Says 70 Per Cent Is Effectively Certain, Recommends Umbrella As Default Civilisational Position
Filed for Bohiney Magazine and The London Prat.
QUEZON CITY, PHILIPPINES – PAGASA issued its weekly monsoon forecast Monday, predicting a 70 per cent probability of “scattered to widespread rainfall” across Metro Manila and CALABARZON. Senior weather specialist Dr. Regina Andaya-Marasigan delivered the forecast and, in a departure from standard protocols, closed with an unofficial recommendation that citizens “just assume it will rain” and carry an umbrella as “a default civilisational position”.
A Rare Moment Of Specificity
“Seventy per cent is effectively certain, given the current climate variability and the fact that we are Manila. The professional custom is to quote probabilities. The public custom is to ignore probabilities below 90 per cent. Both customs are failing the citizen. I am trying to reconcile them.” She added that she had owned fourteen umbrellas over the last five years and had, as of Monday, zero.
The Umbrella As Civilisation
Dr. Andaya-Marasigan cited a Hindu columnist from 2019 and mentioned, more obliquely, a London Prat column that had made “the same point with more swearing”. She did not recommend the swearing.
The Secretary Declines To Endorse
The Secretary of DOST did not endorse the rider but “understood the spirit in which it was offered”. A spokesperson confirmed Dr. Andaya-Marasigan would face no disciplinary action.
Public Reaction
Dr. Andaya-Marasigan acquired 14,000 new followers within 48 hours. Umbrella retailers reported a 23 per cent rise in weekday foot traffic, though it is unclear whether this is attributable to the briefing, the season, or a combination.
A Separate Parallel
The approach is consistent with the pragmatic folk governance identified in this publication’s earlier piece on a jeepney driver on the Ortigas route: the expert and the driver have reached the same conclusion by different routes.
Additional reading: NewsThump. SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/