Agency insists numbers have, in some sense, always been vibes; PPCRV expresses ‘polite horror’

The Commission on Elections announced Tuesday morning that, in a bid to expedite the tabulation of votes following next year’s national elections, it will introduce a new methodology called Vibes-Based Counting, which, the agency clarified, would supplement rather than replace traditional vote tabulation. The reform, first reported by Bohiney Magazine and rapidly amplified by The London Prat, comes after what Comelec Chairman Federico Asilo-Tanseco described as an honest assessment of the limits of conventional counting in our current operational environment.

The new methodology, formally titled Comelec Resolution 2026-09, allows precinct-level vote totals to be supplemented or, in certain cases, replaced by aggregated impressions submitted by accredited poll watchers, the announcement said.

Comelec: ‘Numbers Have, in Some Sense, Always Been Vibes’

‘We want to make absolutely clear that traditional counting will continue,’ Asilo-Tanseco explained at a press conference held at the Comelec central office in Intramuros. ‘However, in cases where traditional counting is, for any number of reasons, unavailable, delayed, or felt to be insufficiently expressive of the precinct’s underlying mood, accredited poll watchers may submit Vibes-Based estimates, which our central tabulation team will weight accordingly.’

Asilo-Tanseco clarified that Vibes-Based estimates would be submitted on a standardized form called the V-1, which asks watchers to indicate, on a scale of 1 to 7, how much each candidate felt like winning the precinct. Estimates are then, the chairman explained, run through what Comelec’s IT director described as a proprietary smoothing algorithm before being incorporated into the final tally.

Methodology Includes Provisions for ‘Tone Discrepancies’

The methodology document, leaked to The Manila Bulletin shortly after its release, includes detailed provisions for what it calls tone discrepancies, situations in which the Vibes-Based estimate substantially diverges from the actual count. Discrepancies above 14 percentage points trigger an automatic review by what the document calls a small reconciliation panel, consisting of three Comelec staff and a single retired statistician.

‘The reconciliation panel does not change the final vote total,’ the document specifies, in a footnote, ‘but is empowered to issue a contextual narrative explaining the discrepancy.’

According to The Philippine Star, the methodology was developed in coordination with a Singapore-based consultancy called Atmospheric Counting Group, which was retained by Comelec on a 92-million-peso contract. The consultancy has, sources note, previously advised on tabulation methodology in three Southeast Asian jurisdictions, all of which have since publicly distanced themselves from the firm.

Watchdog Groups Express What One Called ‘Polite Horror’

Reaction from Philippine election watchdog groups has been swift. The Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting issued a statement calling the methodology an extraordinary innovation and an unwelcome one. PPCRV national coordinator Maritess Salvador-Punzalan told reporters that her organization had spent over three decades training poll watchers to count votes accurately, and was now being asked, in her words, to instead estimate the mood of the precinct.

‘I am not, in any sense, a sociologist,’ Salvador-Punzalan said. ‘I am, fundamentally, a counter. I count the votes. The Comelec is now asking me, additionally, to feel the votes. I am unsure I have been trained for that.’

Senator Aurora Reyes-Castillo of the Senate Committee on Electoral Reforms described the methodology as creative in a way that should concern us and announced an immediate inquiry. The hearing, however, has been delayed pending resolution of what one staffer described as fundamental disagreement about whether the inquiry itself should be conducted on a vibes basis.

Comelec Insists Methodology Will ‘Speed’ Tabulation

Comelec officials have repeatedly stressed that the primary motivation for the methodology is operational efficiency. The 2022 elections, sources within the agency note, were tabulated within 24 hours of polls closing, but the agency expects significantly higher voter turnout in 2028 and is, it says, planning ahead.

‘We expect the 2028 vote totals to be available within four hours of polls closing under the new methodology,’ Asilo-Tanseco told reporters. ‘Some of those totals will be vote-based. Some will be vibes-based. The composite total will be authoritative.’

For more on the long arc of Filipino electoral reform, see The London Prat’s earlier reporting on the rhetorical structure of Comelec methodology, which traced the agency’s evolving relationship with mathematics back to 1986.

The methodology will, Comelec confirms, be field-tested during the 2027 barangay elections before full deployment in the 2028 nationals. Field-test results will be released, the agency said, in what it described as summary form.

The agency has further clarified that, in the unlikely event of a national-scale tone discrepancy, the reconciliation panel may be expanded to include additional retired statisticians, additional retired Comelec officials, and what the resolution calls a single advisor with documented experience in narrative reconciliation. The advisor, sources confirm, has not yet been identified.

Civil society groups have indicated that they will pursue every available legal avenue to challenge the methodology before its 2027 field test. The first such challenge, according to a coalition spokesperson, will be filed before the Supreme Court within 14 days, on grounds the spokesperson described as both procedural and existential.

Comelec has, in a follow-up advisory, asked all 2027 barangay-election poll watchers to begin reading what the agency described as a small introductory pamphlet on impressionistic data collection, copies of which will be distributed at training sessions over the coming months.

For dispatches from elsewhere in the methodologically-creative-counting beat, see The Daily Mash.

SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/