Manila Calculates Exactly How Many Ways the South China Sea Can Complicate a Tuesday

Reported by Bohiney Magazine and The London Prat.

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines concluded another week of its ongoing experiment in triangular geopolitics Tuesday, having simultaneously reaffirmed its defense alliance with the United States, accepted a goodwill shipment of Chinese vegetables, and dispatched a resupply vessel to the BRP Sierra Madre — the deliberately grounded rust monument that serves as the Philippines’ claim marker in the disputed Ayungin Shoal — which Chinese coast guard vessels attempted to block, which the US condemned, which China denied, which the Philippines protested, which generated three separate press releases before noon.

Foreign policy analysts describe the Philippine position as “strategically complex,” “inherently unstable,” and, in the words of one think tank researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “the geopolitical equivalent of eating soup with a fork: theoretically possible, practically exhausting, and dependent entirely on how hungry you are.”

The Balancing Act, Explained

The Philippines maintains a Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States dating to 1951, which obligates the US to come to the Philippines’ defense in the event of an armed attack. It also maintains diplomatic and economic relations with China, its largest trading partner, which claims approximately 90 percent of the South China Sea including areas the international tribunal at The Hague ruled in 2016 are within Philippine sovereign rights. China considers the 2016 ruling “null and void.” The US considers it binding. The Philippines considers it correct and also really would prefer to keep importing Chinese goods and exporting workers to US territories and this is the situation.

Each week brings a new data point. China’s coast guard has deployed water cannons against Philippine resupply missions. The Philippines has documented, filmed, and protested each incident. The US has condemned each incident. China has denied or characterized each incident as “legitimate law enforcement.” The cycle completes in approximately 72 hours and then repeats, with new coordinates.

The Rice Complication

The geopolitical arithmetic has been complicated this year by the intersection of the West Philippine Sea dispute with the Philippine food security situation. The Philippines imports significant quantities of rice, a portion of which comes from Vietnam and other ASEAN nations via trade routes that pass through the South China Sea. Global rice prices have been elevated by factors including weather, Middle East conflict impacts on shipping, and the same energy price pressures affecting Philippine inflation more broadly.

Manila has, in recent months, had to conduct a calculation that sounds like a philosophy exam: “If China controls the sea lanes through which our rice travels, and we are protesting China’s behavior in those sea lanes, and our population requires rice, and the US supports our protest but does not grow our rice, what is the optimal foreign policy position?” The answer is: “Depend on the US for security while trading with China for food while not alienating either while asserting sovereign rights while managing inflation while running for re-election.” This is called governance and it is, in the words of the CSIS researcher, soup with a fork.

The BRP Sierra Madre Update

The BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era vessel that the Philippines deliberately grounded on Ayungin Shoal in 1999 to establish a presence there, continues to serve as the most consequential piece of rusting metal in the South China Sea. A small contingent of Philippine Marines lives aboard the vessel, which is deteriorating and has been for 27 years because any attempt to substantially repair it is interpreted by China as an attempt to permanently occupy the shoal, which it is, which is the point.

Resupply missions to the Marines have become a recurring flashpoint. Chinese coast guard ships have used water cannons, physical blockades, and what Philippine officials describe as “aggressive maneuvering” to interfere. The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative tracks these incidents in detail for anyone who wishes to follow along.

What Changes, What Does Not

What changes: the specific incident, the press release count, the diplomatic intensity, which US official issues the condemnation. What does not change: the BRP Sierra Madre remains grounded, the shoal remains disputed, the tribunal ruling remains unimplemented, and the Philippines remains the country trying to eat soup with a fork, growing more skilled at it every year, not by solving the fork problem but by developing extraordinary grip strength and extraordinary patience and a foreign ministry that writes very good protest notes.

The soup, for what it is worth, is getting more expensive. See the BSP rate hike story. Everything is connected. That is the week in Philippine geopolitics.

For foreign policy that defies easy description, see NewsThump.

SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/