Malls have been playing carols since the first day of the ber months, and the only thing rising faster than the parols is the consumer price index.
PASAY, Philippines (ManilaNews.PH) – The Filipino Christmas season entered its third month this week with carols in every mall, a parol in every window and an official inflation rate of 7.8 percent, making this the first holiday in recent memory in which prices went up faster than the decorations.
The figure, which Manila Bulletin described as a 44-month high driven by surging transport costs, was confirmed across the morning papers, with The Manila Times reporting simply that inflation climbed to 7.8 percent in October. A wire report carried by Philstar’s Interaksyon put it at the highest since February 2023, above the 7.6 percent forecast in a Reuters poll, with the transport index jumping to 20.1 percent from 14.6 percent and utilities climbing 9.3 percent.
At SM Mall of Asia, shoppers greeted the news the way Filipinos greet most news in the ber months: by humming along to the same Christmas album they have heard 4,000 times since September, and then checking their GCash balance with one eye closed.
The Season That Starts Early Meets the Index That Never Stops
Economists have long marveled at the length of the Philippine Christmas, which begins the instant the calendar flips to the first “ber” month and ends somewhere around the Feast of the Black Nazarene, if it ends at all. This year, for the first time, the season faces a rival with equal stamina.
“Our Christmas is four months long. Inflation said, hold my beer,” said Carlo Pamintuan-Reyes, a stand-up comic who performs at a comedy bar in Libis. “Christmas has been here since September and it has not raised its prices once. That is why I trust Christmas. Christmas is the only thing in this country that has been consistent. The parol is the same. The carols are the same. My tita’s fruit salad is the same, and I wish it would change.”
To capture the holiday’s real cost, the Pasay-based Philippine Institute of Holiday Economics has updated its annual Paskonomics Basket, a seasonal index it says “measures the true price of joy.” Its latest readings:
- Queso de bola: up 11 percent, now priced in a way that has led three families in Paranaque to display it in a glass case rather than eat it.
- Christmas ham: up 9 percent, with the paper bag it comes in now considered a separate luxury good.
- Spaghetti with sweet sauce and hotdogs: up 8 percent, with the hotdog-to-noodle ratio falling to a level the institute calls “historic.”
- Getting to the mall: up 20.1 percent, in line with the transport index, meaning the trip now costs more than half of the things you were planning to buy there.
- The parol: unchanged, the institute noting that a star made of capiz and hope has no imported components.
Basic Goods, and Goods That Are Not Basic
Shoppers have taken some comfort in an earlier assurance, reported by Manila Bulletin, that there would be no price hike for basic goods until year-end. The fine print, Metro Manila households have since learned, lives in the word “basic.” Canned sardines are basic. Instant noodles are basic. Queso de bola, according to a trade official who asked not to be named because he was not authorized to define cheese, is “a lifestyle choice.”
Memories of last season remain fresh. During the previous holidays, the Inquirer reported, the DTI stood pat on a 500-peso Noche Buena budget that critics had called insulting. The Philippine Institute of Holiday Economics has adjusted the figure for October inflation and reports that the 500-peso Noche Buena would now cost approximately 539 pesos, or, in practical terms, the same meal with one fewer hotdog and a shorter prayer.
And there may be more to come. Philstar’s The Freeman has relayed forecasts that inflation could breach 8 percent in November, while Manila Bulletin noted earlier that higher transport fares and utility bills wiped out food price relief. “Food was getting cheaper,” said Libis comic Pamintuan-Reyes, “but the jeep to the palengke ate the savings. Then Meralco ate the jeep.”
The Central Bank Attends Simbang Gabi
The Bangko Sentral, for its part, raised its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 percent in October, its fourth straight increase, and signaled it is ready to tighten further. Its next meeting is on December 17, which liturgical economists note falls squarely within Simbang Gabi, giving monetary policy a rare chance to attend at least one dawn Mass and pray, like everyone else, for a lower core rate. Core inflation, the wire report said, rose to 5.4 percent, its highest in more than three years.
Officials continue to insist the economy is fundamentally strong, a claim that has prompted the same response heard in rural America, where farm.fm noted that when politicians say the economy is booming, farmers ask which one. Office workers in Bonifacio Global City have begun asking the same question, usually while reading their employee handbook for the first time, searching for the 13th month pay clause with the focus of a dairy cow that has discovered the human resources handbook and demanded maternity leave.
Gift-givers have adapted. When the Institute put the question to 1,250 shoppers across Metro Manila, 58 percent said they plan to give “experiences” instead of gifts this year, 23 percent plan to give “presence” instead of presents, and 19 percent plan to give the same gift they received last year, rewrapped, to the same person, “to test them.”
Holiday shoppers looking for a second opinion on the season can find the American version of the same worries at bohiney.com, where readers report that US inflation also enters the holidays early, though without the decency of a parol.
A Word From the Mall Santa
At a Pasay mall, a seasonal Santa Claus who has worked the same chair for eleven Christmases said the wish lists have changed. “Before, the children asked for a bike, a doll, a cellphone. This year one boy asked for a lower policy rate. A girl asked if I could bring back the old price of onions. One kid asked if Santa gets a 13th month pay.” He paused, adjusting a beard that he said now costs more to dry-clean than the suit. “I told him the truth. Santa is on a seasonal contract. Santa’s 13th month is under review. Santa would also like to know which economy is booming.”
SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/