Political Scientists Confirm the Two Families Have Now Formally Allied, Broken, Reconciled, and Broken Again More Times Than the EDSA MRT Has Had Operational Disruptions This Year

Bohiney Magazine | The London Prat

MANILA, PHILIPPINES — Political analysts confirmed Tuesday that the Marcos and Duterte political families have entered what they described as “the third distinct phase of formal non-alliance since 2022,” following a week of public statements in which allied lawmakers described the Vice President’s impeachment as a constitutional matter handled by the House independently while Marcos administration officials confirmed the President bore no personal animosity toward the Vice President as an individual while pursuing what they called “accountability for institutional failures” in a tone that journalists across the political spectrum agreed was extremely specific in ways that suggested otherwise. The development brings the total number of Marcos-Duterte alliance cycles to three alliances and two breaks, or two alliances and three breaks depending on whether the 2024 reconciliation counts as a full alliance or an extended mutual acknowledgement that both parties found it inconvenient to be at war during the midterms.

A Brief History of the Alliance and Its Discontents

The Marcos-Duterte relationship has been one of the defining political narratives of the current Philippine administration, involving a 2022 electoral partnership that produced the largest vote haul in Philippine presidential history, a gradual divergence of interests beginning in 2023, a period of public friction involving social media statements, congressional manoeuvres, and what one palace official called “a breakdown in trust that nobody is going to specify in detail on the record,” a short reconciliation in 2024 that observers described as “transactional” and both parties described as “natural,” and the current rupture, which both sides are describing as “institutional” and observers are describing as “the same word they used last time, somewhat differently weighted.”

Political scientist Dr. Antonio Contreras of De La Salle University told reporters that Philippine elite political alliances historically operate on a logic of mutual electoral convenience that creates inherent instability when electoral cycles shift. “When the 2022 ticket was formed, both families calculated they needed each other to win,” Contreras said. “Once the election was won, the calculation became about which family needed the other more, then about whether either family needed the other at all. The impeachment represents the point where one family apparently calculated the answer was no. The other family apparently disagrees about whether that calculation is final.” He said this was “absolutely standard Philippine elite politics” and that the only unusual element was the speed at which the cycle had completed relative to historical precedent.

Provincial and Regional Reactions: What the Rest of the Country Thinks

Outside Metro Manila, reactions to the Marcos-Duterte drama varied by region in ways that confirmed the resilience of regional political identity in the Philippines. In Davao, Duterte country, surveys showed continued strong support for the Duterte family despite the impeachment, with many respondents expressing the view that Manila-based political dynamics did not accurately reflect the family’s standing in their community, a position political geographers said was empirically supportable and politically significant for any Senate trial calculus. In Ilocos Norte, Marcos territory, surveys showed continued confidence in the President’s handling of the situation, with most respondents expressing the view that the Vice President had created the circumstances of her own impeachment, an interpretation that political consultants on both sides found useful for opposite reasons.

Nationally, the Social Weather Stations, the Philippines’ leading polling organisation, reported declining satisfaction with both families’ political conduct, an unusual finding that SWS researchers said reflected “a broader public fatigue with elite family-based political drama in a period when economic pressures, infrastructure gaps, and service delivery challenges remain primary concerns for most Filipino households.” The finding was described by administration allies as evidence that Filipinos wanted the impeachment resolved quickly and the government to return to its work programme. It was described by opposition figures as evidence that Filipinos were tired of dynasties generally. It was described by the Duterte camp as politically motivated polling. SWS confirmed its methodology was consistent with its published standards and invited anyone with concerns to review them.

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The alliance is currently in superposition. Private Eye is monitoring from a safe distance.

The 2028 Presidential Election and Why Everything Now Is About 2028

Political analysts observing the Marcos-Duterte situation unanimously agree that the 2028 presidential election is the organising context for everything currently happening in Philippine politics, including the impeachment, the Senate trial, the congressional alliance restructuring, and the increasingly busy schedule of provincial visits by senators who describe themselves as focused entirely on their legislative work. The Duterte family’s political future depends significantly on the Senate trial outcome: conviction bars the respondent from holding public office, while acquittal or a failed trial restores full political standing and makes the Duterte name a potentially significant factor in 2028 electoral calculations. The Marcos administration’s political future depends on managing the trial in a way that demonstrates institutional seriousness without creating a martyr, consolidating legislative support without alienating regional allies, and maintaining its own survey ratings in a period of economic pressure and public scrutiny. The Senate’s collective future depends on individual senators reading their constituencies correctly in a proceeding that will be the most-watched domestic political event between now and the campaign season, which in the Philippines begins approximately thirty-six months before the election. Political scientist Contreras noted that in this context, every statement made by every political actor in the Philippines for the next two years should be understood as, among other things, a 2028 campaign document. He said this was not cynicism. He said it was just how it worked. He said he was still teaching political science because he found it interesting, not because he found it hopeful, and that the two things were sometimes the same and sometimes not.

SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/marcos-duterte-alliance-third-break/